There’s a better outlook for local watersheds this year, as wet weather in March padded out the snowpack by a significant margin.
At the beginning of April, the average snowpack across the North Shore mountains and other Metro Vancouver peaks was sitting around 83 per cent of normal, according to data from the regional governing body.
That’s a big improvement from a month ago, when the average snowpack was just 63 per cent of normal – based on data from five snow core sites in Metro watershed areas.
At the monitoring station on Grouse Mountain – which has been active since April 1936 – the snow water equivalent measured 636 millimetres on Feb. 28, far below the historical average.
But on March 31, the snow water equivalent jumped to 1,165 mm, which is right around the historical average.
Since we’re now at peak snowpack for the year, the staff responsible for managing Metro Vancouver’s drinking water are looking ahead to what the weather will be like in the spring.
“We try to predict when the reservoirs will stop filling,” explains field hydrologist Peter Marshall. “[The snowpack] might disappear a bit sooner than average.”
According to seasonal forecast data from Environment and Climate Change Canada, there’s a high probability (78 per cent) of above-average temperatures over the next three months, and a strong chance (43 per cent) of below-average precipitation.
One emerging shift in the way hydrologists consider weather data has to do with the El Niño southern oscillation, Marshall said.
While the cooler phase of the oscillation, La Niña, has long been seen as a way to forecast better snowpacks, that’s not always the case anymore, he said.
In recent years, La Niña systems haven't brought the same amount of snow that they used to.
“Using those as predictors is going to be harder going forward,” Marshall said.
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