Metro Vancouverites won't stay dry much this week...but they aren't likely to face torrential downpours.
Environment Canada meteorologist Chris Doyle says locals may see some showers overnight on Wednesday, Nov. 13 but the wettest weather occurred overnight on Tuesday.
Similarly, the North Shore mountains may see 10 to 20 mm of precipitation and lightning strikes but places at lower elevations aren't expected to see significantly stormy weather. Other cities should receive precipitation up to 10 mm.
"Colder air in the upper atmosphere generates instability but the chances of lighting in the Lower Mainland are remote," he tells V.I.A.
Winds of 20 km/h gusting to 40 km/h are expected overnight across Metro Vancouver.
The wet weather should ease Thursday with a 40 per cent chance of showers throughout the day.
A ridge building overhead through Friday will afford "the nicest day of the next five," allowing some much-missed sun to dry drenched soil, explains Doyle.
"Saturday starts dry but a cold front moves in and [we'll see] rain and gusty wind," he says. "It is important to keep in mind we are in a period of high tides, and Sunday morning the ocean levels will be close to the top of the seawall."
Metro Vancouver weather forecast includes risking walking conditions
People walking or running near the water in False Creek, Stanley Park, and other beach or oceanside areas should mind the rising water level. High winds could make these activities risky.
Monday looks "quite dry" but then the department is uncertain about what is in store for the rest of the week. Moisture is riding over a ridge of high pressure but meteorologists can't determine how close Metro Vancouver will come to the band of moisture.
Doyle says typhoon activity in the Pacific makes weather forecasting difficult at this time of the year because they generate errors in the models five or seven days in advance.
"On the balance of probabilities it looks cloudy but dry but we won't rule out significant precipitation," he explains.
November's signal is trending near average with "a slightly cool bias" but it's difficult to predict how wet the rest of the month will be. It could be "cool but dry" instead of a cold, wet month. However, La Niña years typically increase the likelihood of colder, wetter conditions, although the weather phenomenon's effects show most after the winter holidays.
For now, the meteorologist has a caveat for folks in Metro Vancouver hoping to soak up November sunshine.
"Given our uncertainty about next week: Enjoy Friday!"
Stay up-to-date with hyperlocal forecasts across 50 neighbourhoods in the Lower Mainland with V.I.A.'s Weatherhood.
