OTTAWA — San Antonio, Detroit and Kansas City are the three American cities most vulnerable to a trade war, says new research by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.
The research looked at 41 cities in the U.S. to determine which ones are the most dependent on trade with Canada.
The report says that U.S. cities that are heavily tied to trade with Canada and Mexico face "significant economic risks" from tariffs placed on U.S. goods in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war.
Research released by the chamber in February indicated that Calgary, Saint John, N.B., and Windsor, Ont., are the Canadian cities that would be hit the hardest by U.S. tariffs.
The latest report looking at American cities says Chicago, Detroit and Houston are the largest exporters to Canada in terms of value. Houston exported $18 billion to Canada in 2023.
Detroit and Laredo, Texas, have the highest export intensity ratio at five per cent. The ratio is a measure of the value of their exports to Canada as a share of their GDP.
The research says San Antonio — which is home to automotive, aerospace and petroleum refining industries — is the most vulnerable American city because almost half of its exports are destined for Canada.
Detroit is in the No. 2 spot, the research says, because its auto industry is "deeply integrated" with Canada, particularly Ontario. The report says Michigan and Ontario form "one of the most interconnected automotive supply chains globally," producing about 22 per cent of North America's vehicles.
Kansas City, Mo., which has a major car assembly plant and exports chemicals and agri-food products, is also among the most vulnerable U.S. cities because 40 per cent of its total exports are destined for Canada.
Trump on Wednesday signed an executive order to impose 25 per cent tariffs on all automobile imports to the United States next week but the deep integration of the North American industry is resulting in confusion about how those duties will affect the Canadian auto sector.
A fact sheet provided by the White House said automobiles imported under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico-Agreement on trade will only be tariffed on the value of content not made in the United States, and certain auto parts will likely see tariff delays.
Earlier this month, the president imposed 25 per cent tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports to the U.S., including Canadian products.
Cities at the bottom of the list include Miami; El Paso, Texas; and San Jose and San Diego in California.
The report says cities ranked lower on this list are likely less reliant on Canadian trade because "their local economies trade more with other countries, are more diversified or oriented toward services industries."
"The strength of a metro’s relationship with Canada is in part due to geography, as northern metros are ranked higher, but interconnected rail networks, ports and highways explain why some southern metros are more trade intensive," the report says.
The report says that, based on 2023 data, the average U.S. export dependency on Canada is 18 per cent, compared to Canada's 75 per cent overall export dependency on the U.S.
"No matter where tariffs end up for products like steel, oil and cars, the proximity and relationships between North American companies built over a half of century should supersede all other considerations," the report says, noting that more than one million American jobs depend on exports to Canada.
— With files from Kelly Geraldine Malone in Washington
This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 27, 2025.
Catherine Morrison, The Canadian Press
