This Easter, soaring cocoa prices will continue to have an effect on the price of chocolate, experts say — and consumers will likely be looking for deals to fill their baskets.
Cocoa prices have risen significantly in the past couple of years as crops in key cocoa-growing countries have been hit hard by a number of factors, including extreme weather.
Cocoa prices on financial markets soared above US$12,000 per ton in 2024. Recently they have been hovering around US$8,000 per ton, but that's still way up from where they were before — hovering around the US$2,000 mark in 2022, according to data from Refinitiv.
For chocolate makers, raising the price of their products has been a necessity, especially if they want to keep producing the same quality their customers are used to.
"When your price of chocolate triples ... you cannot keep the same price. It's impossible," said Daniel Poncelet, owner of Vancouver-based Daniel Chocolates.
"We make high-end chocolate, and we cannot kill our business by actually offering a lower-quality taste."
Poncelet estimates the price of his chocolate Easter bunny has doubled in just a couple of years.
Prices of confectionery products rose 5.7 per cent in March year-over-year, according to the inflation data from Statistics Canada, outpacing overall inflation.
Climate change means cocoa farmers are struggling more to grow successfully as harvests are affected by heat, rain and more. Some farmers are switching to other crops, further driving up prices.
Confectionery manufacturers saw some relief in sugar prices in 2024 but little relief is expected for cocoa prices in 2025, Farm Credit Canada said in its 2025 Food and Beverage Report.
“If cocoa prices stay high and trade disruptions persist, margins will be squeezed further in the sector,” the report said.
Companies can only do so much to mitigate such large cost increases, said Jo-Ann McArthur, president at Nourish Food Marketing.
Other than raising their prices, they can make products smaller, use less cocoa solids in favour of cocoa butter, or try marketing their products as more premium, she said.
Smaller businesses have a harder time mitigating the price increases, she said, but the chocolate giants haven’t escaped unscathed.
For example, Mondelez International, which makes Cadbury chocolate among other well-known snack and candy brands, forecast a decline in its adjusted earnings per share in 2025 due to “unprecedented cocoa inflation,” as it reported its fourth-quarter results in February.
Poncelet said his customers are understanding when they see higher prices, but he's noticed they buy in smaller volumes than before.
"People are not going to buy a dozen bunnies. They're going to buy maybe one for each kid, and that's it," he said.
Many consumers change their shopping behaviour when faced with higher prices, said Joel Gregoire, associate director for food and drink at market research company Mintel.
These shifts have been clear in the wake of inflation as shoppers have switched to discount stores, looked around for sales and promotions more, and traded down to more affordable private-label brands.
But when it comes to special occasions the calculus is different, said Gregoire. Because of this, budget-conscious parents may be willing to still shell out for Easter chocolate, though they may adopt a “high-low” strategy of splurging on some items while saving on others.
“It's got to be tied to a certain experience, and I would say, presumably, a future memory, which kind of ups the stakes,” he said.
McArthur agreed that shoppers are still willing to splurge on special occasions, but they may seek out more price-conscious stores. For example, she recently noticed a Lindt display in a dollar store.
"Lindt chocolate at a dollar store is a nice combination of save and splurge," she said.
Retailers and manufacturers will likely try and offer consumers more choice to help ease the sting of higher prices, Gregoire said.
This could include “tiering,” offering a higher-quality product at a higher price as well as a more affordable option, he said.
There’s an opportunity for store-owned brands, which tend to cost less than name brands, added Gregoire.
Companies may also either make products a little smaller — known as shrinkflation — or offer multiple sizes of the same product, he said.
Poncelet said he's holding out hope for a further easing in cocoa prices, noting that the current price — while high — is down markedly from last year's biggest spike.
"I booked some contracts for (the) third and fourth quarters with a more favourable price," he said.
"That means that maybe starting in July, we will be able to lower our prices accordingly."
One silver lining: McArthur doesn’t see tariffs affecting chocolate prices this Easter. The effects of tariffs on retail prices take time to flow through the supply chain, she said, and a lot of manufacturers have been stockpiling ingredients for a while.
She also noted that the government just announced a temporary reprieve on retaliatory tariffs for ingredients used by Canadian food manufacturers, among other sectors.
— With files from The Associated Press
This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 19, 2025.
Rosa Saba, The Canadian Press
