MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Billionaire Elon Musk has helped President Donald Trump abruptly change the federal government in the opening weeks of the year, but he's learned he can't change the laws of political gravity.
Musk and his affiliated groups sunk $21 million into flipping the Wisconsin Supreme Court to conservative control, only to see his candidate defeated by 10 percentage points on Tuesday. The losing margin was four points larger than that of the only other Republican on the same statewide ballot, who was not tied to Musk's money.
Republicans had long been pessimistic about their odds of picking up the seat because Democrats' educated coalition has turned out heavily in relatively obscure elections such as the Wisconsin one during the Trump era. But in his business and fledgling political career, Musk has delighted in taking on the naysayers.
Using some of the tactics he employed to help get Trump elected in November with more than $200 million in spending, Musk dove into Wisconsin and helped make the race the most expensive judicial contest on record. It produced high turnout for an April election but ended almost the same way as the prior, double-digit loss by conservatives during a court race in 2023.
“At most, this outcome shifted one percentage point,” said Charles Franklin, a law professor and pollster at Marquette University in Milwaukee. “It puts in perspective this idea that everything that Trump is doing is going to be just fine in November.”
Susan Crawford, the Dane County judge who won Tuesday's race, and Democrats made Musk the focus of their arguments for preserving liberals' 4-3 court majority after a separate liberal justice retired.
“Today Wisconsinites fended off an unprecedented attack on our democracy, our fair elections and our Supreme Court,” Crawford said in her Tuesday night victory speech. “And Wisconsin stood up and said loudly that justice does not have a price, our courts are not for sale.”
The race was the first major test of the political impact of Musk, whose prominence in President Donald Trump's administration has skyrocketed with his chaotic cost-cutting initiative that has slashed federal agencies. Musk has defied political precedent and, legal experts argue, the Constitution, by gutting congressionally authorized agencies and programs while drawing only muted opposition from the Republicans who control Congress.
That's happened as Trump has methodically taken steps to expand his authority and use the power of the federal government against his critics.
Still, Tuesday's vote was a reminder that most presidents' parties lose ground in midterm elections and, so far, the Trump administration has not been able to insulate the GOP from the most powerful potential opposition in the country — the voters.
“The way Trump has singled out individuals and institutions has prevented coordination of people in opposition to him,” said Brendan Nyhan, a political scientist at Dartmouth College.
But Wisconsin's result and narrowing margins during special elections in GOP-held congressional seats in Florida may be changing that.
“It looks like the electoral playing field is tilting against Republicans quite dramatically,” Nyhan said.
Trump endorsed conservative Brad Schimel as the Wisconsin race turned into a proxy fight over national political issues. The state’s high court can rule on cases involving voting rights and redistricting in a state likely to be at the center of both next year’s midterm elections and the 2028 presidential contest.
But Musk’s involvement dialed those dynamics up to 11: “A seemingly small election could determine the fate of Western civilization,” the billionaire said Tuesday in a last-ditch call to voters on his social media site X. “I think it matters for the future of the world.”
Notably, America PAC, the super PAC backed by Musk, spent at least $6 million on vendors who sent door-to-door canvassers across the state, according to the non-partisan Wisconsin Democracy Campaign. It was a reprise of what the group did last fall across the seven most competitive presidential battleground states, including Wisconsin, which were carried by Trump.
Musk's court race defeat wasn't only because of crushing Democratic margins in deep blue cities such as Madison and Milwaukee. Crawford’s margins were higher in places where the Musk-backed group America PAC had been active. That included Sauk County, just north of Madison, which Crawford was carrying by 10 points after Trump won it by less than 2 points in November.
On Sunday, Musk headlined a campaign rally in Green Bay with 2,000 people. Trump won Brown County, which includes the city, by 7 percentage points last year. But on Tuesday, it went for Crawford.
Overnight, Musk posted on his X platform that “The long con of the left is corruption of the judiciary.” In another comment, he contended he always expected to lose but argued “there is value to losing a piece for positional gain.”
Some Republicans questioned Musk's decision to go all-in on the contest, especially since political insiders of both parties expected the GOP to lose the contest.
"If the chances are it’s going to go against you, is it wise to insert yourself as a central player and do rallies in the last couple days, further signifying that point?” said GOP strategist Marc Short, referring to the town hall Musk headlined in Green Bay. Short was a top adviser to Trump's former Vice President, Mike Pence.
Voters definitely had Musk on their minds.
“There’s an insane situation going on with the Trump administration, and it feels like Elon Musk is trying to buy votes,” said Kenneth Gifford, a 22-year-old Milwaukee college student, as he cast his ballot on Tuesday. “I want an actual, respectable democracy.”
Others may not have had their vote decided by the billionaire, but were all too aware of the money pouring into their state.
Jim Seeger, a 68-year-old retiree who previously worked in communications and marketing, said he voted for Schimel because he wants Republicans to maintain their outsized majority in Wisconsin’s congressional delegation, which will be at risk if the liberal majority on the court orders the maps redrawn. But, he added, he was disappointed the election had become a “financial race.”
“I think it’s a shame that we have to spend this much money, especially on a judicial race,” Seeger said as he voted in Eau Claire.
In addition to his political contributions, Musk paid three individual voters $1 million each for signing a petition in an effort to goose turnout. Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul, a Democrat, sued to bar Musk from making the payments, but the state Supreme Court unanimously declined to rule on the case over a technicality.
Musk also offered to pay $20 to anyone who signed up on his group’s site to knock on doors for Schimel and posted a photo of themselves as proof. His organization promised $100 to every voter who signed the petition against “activist judges” and another $100 for every signer they referred.
Democrats were happy to make Musk a lightning rod in the race.
“People do not want to see Elon Musk buying election after election after election,” Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler said Monday. “If it works here, he’s going to do it all over the country.”
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Riccardi reported from Denver. Associated Press writer Meg Kinnard in Washington contributed to this report.
Nicholas Riccardi And Thomas Beaumont, The Associated Press
