With the BC NDP narrowly defeating the Conservatives, many small events may have affected who would go on to form government.
Notably, on election day, an atmospheric river brought record-breaking rain to a place already known for rain: Metro Vancouver.
When V.I.A. polled readers, more than nine per cent of local readers said the rain affected whether they voted in the BC Election. In total, 162 people said it affected their voting.
In Vancouver, that difference wouldn't have changed any of the results, but other nearby races were much closer.
Notably, in nearby Surrey-Guildford, the final difference was only 27 votes, in favour of the NDP.
Given how close that electoral district was and that the BC NDP has the bare minimum to make of a majority government, the fact the rain may have kept some people from voting may have theoretically had a significant impact on B.C.'s political landscape. A Conservative winning that seat would have meant a minority government for the NDP.
Two other close electoral districts were also in areas hit hard by the storm. Maple Ridge East went to the Conservatives with a slim 96 vote margin and Juan de Fuca-Malahat saw the NDP win with a 141 vote lead.
It's impossible to say precisely how the voters who stayed home because of the rain would have voted, but it's mathematically possible (and not a big stretch) for the election to have turned out differently.
V.I.A. polled 1,443 readers and asked the question: Did the rainstorm affect whether you voted in the B.C. election?
The poll ran from 10/20/2024 to 11/2/2024. Of the 1443 votes, we can determine that 604 are from within the community. The full results are as follows:
Results are based on an online study of adult Vancouver Is Awesome readers located in Vancouver. The margin of error - which measures sample variability - is +/- 2.58%, 19 times out of 20.
Vancouver Is Awesome uses a variety of techniques to capture data, detect and prevent fraudulent votes, detect and prevent robots, and filter out non-local and duplicate votes.
