The writs have been issued. Lawn signs are being pounded in. British Columbia’s 43rd general election is now underway.
And UBC political scientist Stewart Prest is not making any predictions.
“It looks very close to a dead heat, if we were to believe the polls,” he said. “This is a really open election and the campaign, therefore, is going to be quite important.”
Prest said there is a high degree of frustration with political systems in much of the democratic world currently, which is manifesting itself in the rhetoric shaping the Oct. 19 election.
Prest said affordability – particularly the cost of housing – will be one of the key issues of the election. The NDP’s plan seeks to spur the construction of hundreds of thousands of new homes. The Conservatives have said they will repeal the NDP’s housing supply laws and instead are pitching a tax credit tied to mortgage and rent payments.
“The parties are really staking out pretty starkly different approaches to the problem, and so voters are going to have a clear choice on that issue,” Prest said.
Like other issues coming up frequently – healthcare wait times, homelessness and public safety, and transportation – Prest said British Columbians owe it themselves to exercise some due diligence now to make an informed decision.
“This is an election where the rhetoric may move in different directions than the reality in certain ways, and so I really encourage voters to take a moment and sit with the actual promises and the actual commitments parties are making, and the actions that the parties have taken,” he said.
Undoubtedly, the biggest change in the political landscape is the demise of BC United (formerly the BC Liberals) and the rise of the BC Conservatives – a deal that was largely brokered here on the North Shore.
“There’s not really any precedent for that in B.C. politics,” Prest said. “I think part of this is related back to that sense of frustration among the electorate, in a sense that perhaps this is a moment where the NDP seems vulnerable in a way that they did not even, let’s say, half a year ago.”
Consolidating the right-of-centre vote certainly helps the Conservatives, Prest said, however it shouldn’t be a given that all of B.C. United’s would-be voters will feel comfortable casting a ballot for the more socially conservative, populist party led by John Rustad.
With battle lines drawn as they are, West Vancouver’s two ridings will be among the two most interesting ones to watch, Prest said.
In West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, BC United MLA Jordan Sturdy was elected in 2020 just 60 votes ahead of the Green Party’s Jeremy Valeriote – 37.5 and 37.3 per cent of the popular vote, respectively. The NDP’s candidate finished third with 25 per cent of the vote.
Sturdy is not running again but Valeriote is, along with the Conservatives’ Yuri Fulmer, a businessman and chancellor at Capilano University, and the NDP’s Jen Ford, a Whistler municipal council member.
West Vancouver-Capilano had always been a safe BC Liberal seat prior to the party’s rebranding and demise, however incumbent BC United MLA Karin Kirkpatrick cancelled her plans for retirement and announced that she would run as a centrist independent.
The Conservatives recently named West Vancouver Schools trustee Lynn Block as their candidate for the riding, while the NDP have chosen nurse practitioner Sara Eftekhar and the Greens have nominated lawyer Archie Kaario.
Kirkpatrick is one of at least six former BC United MLAs who’ve chosen to run again as independents, accusing the Conservatives of tolerating conspiracy theorists and anti-scientific views in their ranks. Without a party apparatus behind them, they have a very steep challenge in getting re-elected, however they may still impact individual races, Prest said.
“They have a chance to play spoiler, for sure. I think they can draw on personal loyalty and the connections that they have built up in the community,” he said. “Even winning a handful of a percent of the vote can change the outcome in some of the ridings.”
Elections BC also redrew the West Vancouver riding boundaries in 2023, moving several neigbourhoods from Altamont to Sandy Cove out of West Vancouver-Sea to Sky and into West Vancouver-Capilano, which likely strengthens the Conservative voter base in Capilano while weakening it in Sea to Sky, Prest said.
North Vancouver-Seymour was safe seat for the BC Liberals – until it wasn’t. NDP incumbent Susie Chant upset 45 years of BC Liberal and Social Credit representation for the riding when she won in 2020. Chant is running for re-election, facing off against Conservative entrepreneur Samarth Chandola. The BC Green Party has named entertainment business executive Subhadarshi Tripathy as their candidate.
North Vancouver-Lonsdale has been held by the NDP’s Bowinn Ma for the last two terms, having won re-election in 2020 with a commanding 59.8 per cent of the popular vote. So far, her only challenger is Conservative David Splett, a chartered accountant coming from the mining industry. As of Sept. 24, the Greens had not yet chosen a candidate, although the deadline for filing nominations papers with Elections BC is Sept. 28 at noon.
