Metro Vancouverites aren't expected to see a White Christmas and they might not see much snow this winter.
Earlier this fall, meteorologists expected La Niña would start influencing local temperatures in December 2024. Now, they aren't sure the weather phenomenon will materialize this winter.
Environment Canada Meteorologist Chris Doyle tells V.I.A. the department hasn't detected the signal for La Niña yet.
"It was supposed to materialize now or even a few weeks ago," he explains.
On Dec. 12, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Centre updated its forecast, noting that La Niña conditions are most likely to emerge from now through January 2025 with a 59 per cent likelihood. After that, they should transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by March or May with a 61 per cent chance.
"It is not certain at this point that it will develop [but] there's a 57 per cent chance it will...but it will be weak in January," he says.
Metro Vancouver weather forecast may not include La Niña
Doyle says this means there's also a 41 per cent chance La Niña simply won't appear, meaning conditions will remain neutral through the winter.
La Niña years often include low-elevation snowfall and below-average temperatures, although this isn't always the case.
Environment Canada calls for a "weak" La Niña year (if it materializes), meaning its impacts should only carry from January through March. Years with a stronger signal can last significantly longer.
The department expects the winter will be rainy on the coast "but not necessarily cold," Doyle adds.
"So I wouldn't write off the ski resorts but the chances of snow at sea level aren't looking as good. Snow in the Lower Mainland depends on a variety of factors," he explains.
The Metro Vancouver weather forecast typically needs a blast of frigid Arctic air for a significant snow event. Otherwise, temperatures are typically too warm to allow anything to stick through the day.
Stay up-to-date with hyperlocal forecasts across 50 neighbourhoods in the Lower Mainland with V.I.A.'s Weatherhood.
