Canadians are almost evenly divided in two main groups: Those who are certainly voting for the Conservative Party in the next federal election (30 per cent) and those who are certainly not (32 per cent). This leaves 16 per cent who are fully undecided and 23 per cent who were leaning towards voting for the Official Opposition, but who say the resignation of Justin Trudeau has changed things. These voters need to see what the next leader of the Liberal Party does before deciding who to vote for.
The group waiting to see includes 24 per cent of British Columbians and 23 per cent of Ontarians. In early January, on the last poll conducted before Trudeau announced his intention to step down, the Conservatives led in these two provinces with the support of 54 per cent and 51 per cent of decided voters, respectively. With so many voters in two crucial battlegrounds rethinking their approach to the next election, a massive Conservative majority no longer appears assured.
At this stage, almost half of Canadians (47 per cent) say they would consider voting for the Conservative Party in the next federal election. The rating is slightly lower for the Liberal Party and the NDP (each at 43 per cent) and falls further for the Green Party (32 per cent) and the People’s Party (23 per cent).
When Research Co. asked Canadians who are considering the Conservatives about the main reason for their choice, more than a third (36 per cent) cited the party’s leader, while 33 per cent pointed to the party’s ideas and policies. A desire for change is the primary motivation for 11 per cent.
There will be an opportunity for rivals to paint a different picture of Pierre Poilievre as we head closer to the next federal election. The top six words used by Canadians to describe Poilievre this month are arrogant (40 per cent), intelligent (33 per cent), strong (32 per cent), efficient (26 per cent), dishonest (25 per cent) and uncaring (also 25 per cent). There are significant increases in “strength” and “efficiency,” crucial components for a politician who wants to be regarded as a “prime minister in waiting.”
When asked if specific issues would be “better” in Canada if Poilievre were already in charge, about a third of Canadians think of three: Immigration (34 per cent), the economy and jobs (33 per cent) and energy and pipelines (also 33 per cent). On trade and U.S. relations, Poilievre checks in at 31 per cent. On housing, homelessness and poverty, he is at 27 per cent.
On the other side of the aisle, we have the race for the Liberal Party’s leadership. More than two in five Canadians (43 per cent) have a favourable opinion of Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada. The results are lower for former finance minister Chrystia Freeland (38 per cent), former House leader Karina Gould (21 per cent) and former MPs Ruby Dhalla (17 per cent) and Frank Baylis (16 per cent).
Carney holds the upper hand over his rivals as being better suited to manage 10 different issues, with a backing ranging from 22 per cent (on health care, the environment and immigration) to 31 per cent (on the economy and jobs). On these same questions, anywhere from 38 per cent to 47 per cent of Canadians cannot select any of the five contenders—one of whom will begin serving as prime minister next month—as the best option.
The federal elections of 2011 and 2015 are perfect examples of how parties can grow or stagnate as leaders and policies become familiar. Right now, more than one in four Canadians are waiting to see whether the Liberals are worthy of their vote when a new leader is in place, and practically two in five cannot decide which of the current contenders is better suited to manage the country’s foremost federal files. These numbers offer more reasons for caution until the playing field—for all political parties—is level.
Mario Canseco is president of Research Co.
Results are based on an online survey conducted from February 3-5, 2025, among 1,001 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
